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're going to do the recession here first. you can see back in september 2011, when we're dealing with debt ceiling, the probability of recession by this group, 36%, fell to a low of 19% around the winter of 2012. remember when everything was being looking good, it dipped down again. the probability of recession went up again. now it's fallen again for the second straight month. 2011, 17.6%. not quite off the charts because we still have room here but it's the lowest that we've seen since we began asking this question. i don't know if we have the growth forecast chart here, guys, if we can go back to that. here are the actuals. year over year gdp, 2.6, 1.8, lackluster and picking up to a lackluster not great 2.6%. i want to share with you some views of the economy from our 54 respo respondents. firming housing prices are a game changer. there is something much more self-feeding about recovery this year. could be a turning point. the objepposite from john rober. we believe a recession/economic slowdown is a possibility in the latter half of 2014 or early in 2015. some of the excesses that co
: there are all kinds of fiscal issues with the budget, with sequester and the debt ceiling, not far off. have you offered a number of ways that you think the federal government could be cutting back. your office is good at looking at budgets and plans. you have note aid number of things that could have been done n. liu of closing the white house to public visitors, but did you have bipartisan crossover. >> i had bipartisan crossover because they're getting ready to run for election. there is a game play in the senate. this administration wants to show the american public that we can't cut $44 billion between now and september 30 without them experiencing massive pain. they have every intention to make it hurt to get the point that we need to spends every penny we are spending. which is absolutely ludicrous. it's a shame they are doing that because a lot of things -- we are going to have air traffic control towers shut down. they are not shut down because they are too expensive. on average, they cost $wo.3 million less per year to operate. they are shut down to come back with unionized employees i
to the senate democrats not having to pass a budget in four year. under the debt ceiling in january, if the senate does not pass a budget then the senators will have their paychecks with held. it this is obviously, politically a hot potato. for him he does want, very much to have a certain amount of co-sponsors as well and they are worried about the impact of air traffic controllers by sequestration that went into ffect on march 1 the $85 billion of the across the bored spending. >> the spending for the rest of fiscal year 2013, how quickly is the house likely to take that up and pass it? >> i spoke to the house appropriation chairman and he says it is likely, unless there is last-minute changes that he does not know about the house will quickly move to bring the c.r. unchanged to the senate's floor and the house can move with lightning speed compared to the senate. so i think the flight path is clear in the house assuming there is no big changes to the senate's c.r. at this point, we have to get through -- what looks like right now to a thursday vote on the senator for the c.r. >>
the debt ceiling is hit. i think that's the most fertile time for us. i think what republicans want to see, wolf, they want to see a 75-year actuary soundness. we want to make sure the programs are going to be there for the future. the president knows we want to make sure these programs are there, and what the presidents wants, obviously, is some additional revenue. i believe there's a possibility if we could get the 75-year soundness on medicare and social security with appropriate changes and reforms, i think there may be a way through full tax reform to do something that will generate revenue and fit the needs of both sides, and that's what i'm hopeful is going to happen over the next four months. look, there's no negotiation that's happening right now. there's some general discussions that have taken place, but i think the environment is going to be the best that it's been in the next several months. >> just to be precise, under certain circumstances to save social security and medicare over 75 years, you'd be willing to raise tax revenue. do you have a number, two to one, three to one
to be agreement in congress, but we are not there yet. we have a debt ceiling. while they passed to budgets, they still have not gone to the whole process. we could continue with these stop-measures to keep the government from shutting down until eight -- an agreement is made. , go ahead.ssee caller: i would like her to define the word "politico." americanught government for the past 19 years and we are not governed by parties. we do not covered by the constitution. example which one is not mentioned in the constitution. if madison and hamilton thought it was important and washington thought it was important, it would have been in there. resolutions are non- binding. all it does is increase the burden of debt of my students who are now in debt probably $50,000 already. they have not graduated from high school already. households are in debt to the tune of $150,000 -- host: you have given us a lot to work with. what level do you teach? caller: high school. 12th graders? caller: yes, sir, u.s. government. guest: host: if you go to our website, you will find information that could be helpful i
a discussion on the lifting of the debt ceiling, some of the republicans who were there, actually walked out of the room. this year we didn't have that. so, you know, people were more willing to listen, but i think that the extreme wing of the tea party typically does not attend the harvard new members conference this. [laughter] in my experience. >> jessica mathews. among economists, is there significant debate about your estimate, your five to $6 trillion estimate, are you still -- what are the key issues that if we were in a roomful if economists we would be tangling with you about? >> well, that's a great question. i think that, you know, the original estimate when we had the original estimate 3 trillion, came back to his sort of early on from a former student of mine who was working in the administration and he was a brilliant student, fairly senior job at omb. he called me and he said i've been tasked with setting up a committee to scrutinize all the numbers in your book, and to discredit them. i just want to let you know that. and i said, okay. fine. and he came back to the six months
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6